Indonesia Could Export Rice if Global Production Declines

August 4, 2026 | 05:03 pm

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Indonesia’s Ministry of Agriculture has highlighted a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicting a decline in global rice production. "This presents an opportunity for us to export," said Makmun, Director of Livestock Product Downstreaming at the Ministry of Agriculture, during a regional inflation control coordination meeting on Tuesday, August 4, 2026.

An FAO report released on June 18, 2026, and cited by the Ministry of Agriculture, showed that potential global rice production declined 1.6 percent to 552.4 million tons in the 2026/2027 period. Meanwhile, the FAO estimates that Indonesian rice production will increase 0.2 percent in the same period to 38.6 million tons.

According to Makmun, this projection creates an opportunity for Indonesia to export the commodity to countries that may experience supply shortages due to the decline in global rice production. With a 0.2 percent increase in production, Makmun said, domestic demand will be met. "This means the fewer problems there are, the safer it will be," he said.

Furthermore, Makmun stated that Indonesia is projected to become the largest rice producer in ASEAN, with a production of 38.6 million tons. With the potential to increase rice production to 38.6 million tons, Indonesia surpasses Vietnam, which is projected to produce 28.4 million tons. Thanks to this production increase, Indonesia will also rank fourth among the largest rice-producing countries in 2026/2027.

At the same event, Makmun announced that the rice reserve had reached 5.25 million tons as of August 2026. He also urged regional governments experiencing rice supply shortages to coordinate. "There's Bulog in every region, so this won't be a problem because we have 5.25 million tons in stock," Makmun said.

Read: Indonesia's Bapanas to Begin Phase 2 Rice Aid on August 17

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