BMKG Warns of Extreme Weather, Disaster Risk as Indonesia Faces Wet Dry Season

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Although it is supposed to be the dry season, many regions in Indonesia are still experiencing heavy rain. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) refers to this unusual condition as a wet dry season. This phenomenon is expected to bring continued potential for extreme rain in the coming week.

During an online press conference titled "Weather and Climate Development" on Monday, July 7, 2025, Head of BMKG Dwikorita Karnawati revealed that anomalous rainfall has been occurring since May 2025 and is predicted to continue until October. Monitoring data shows that most parts of Indonesia are still receiving above-normal rainfall.

She explained that this phenomenon is triggered by the weakening of the Australian Monsoon and warm sea surface temperatures in southern Indonesia. "The weakening of the Australian Monsoon, typically associated with the dry season, also causes the sea surface temperatures in southern Indonesia to remain warm, contributing to the anomalous rainfall," she said, as quoted from the official BMKG website.

Atmospheric Waves and Air Instability

BMKG notes that atmospheric waves, such as Kelvin and Rossby waves, remain active across Indonesia. Coupled with wind convergence along the coast of Java and high local air instability, rain clouds are growing rapidly.

This wind convergence leads to the accumulation of air masses, intensifying heavy rain. Even though the ENSO and IOD indices are currently in a neutral phase, this doesn't eliminate the potential for extreme weather. BMKG believes that these active atmospheric dynamics are also slowing down the nation's transition to the dry season.

Heavy rain, with intensities exceeding 100 mm per day, has already impacted several areas on July 5 and 6. Cities like Bogor, Mataram, parts of South Sulawesi, and East Jakarta were deluged, resulting in floods, landslides, fallen trees, and severe congestion. Rainfall of up to 150 mm per day was also recorded in hilly areas. Additionally, puddles and long traffic jams due to vehicle queues were observed in the Tangerang area.

According to BMKG, areas that need to be vigilant in the coming week include western and central Java (including Greater Jakarta), East Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, West Nusa Tenggara (especially Mataram), central Maluku, and northern and central parts of Papua.

Weather Modification Operations and Hydrometeorological Alert

BMKG also forecasts that the potential for significant rain will shift to the central and eastern parts of Indonesia from July 10-12, 2025. This shift is closely linked to the distribution of tropical humidity and atmospheric wave activity. This situation aligns with BMKG's prediction from March that this year's dry season would experience a delay of approximately 29 percent in the Seasonal Zone (ZOM), particularly in Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, and East Nusa Tenggara.

As a mitigation measure, BMKG, in collaboration with the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB), the Regional Disaster Mitigation Agency (BPBD), and transportation operators, is conducting weather modification operations (WMO). Jakarta and West Java are the primary focus, with operations scheduled from July 7 to 11, 2025.

Deputy for Weather Modification at BMKG, Tri Handoko Seto, explained that these efforts aim to reduce the risk of extreme rain in densely populated areas. "We continue to coordinate with regional governments and BNPB as the parties providing the budget," he said, as quoted from the BMKG site.

BMKG reiterates the importance for the public and stakeholders not to underestimate the potential for hydrometeorological disasters. Risks such as floods, landslides, and transportation disruptions remain high in the coming days.

"We urge all members of the public and stakeholders to remain vigilant and always be cautious about weather developments, as the atmospheric dynamics currently occurring are still quite complex," Dwikorita emphasized.

The public is encouraged to actively monitor updated early warnings from BMKG every 3 to 6 hours through official channels such as the InfoBMKG application, the website www.bmkg.go.id, social media, and the 196 call center.

Editor's Choice: BMKG's Weather Forecast: Heavy Rain Persists in Parts of Indonesia This Week

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