March 20, 2026 | 03:23 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Climate and atmospheric researchers at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Erma Yulihastin, warned of the potential for a dry season that would be long and drier than normal from April to October of 2026. This condition is due to the influence of two simultaneous phenomena, namely El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD+). Regarding El Nino, Erma referred to it as a "super El Nino" because it originates from temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean exceeding 1.5 to 2.0 degrees Celsius.
El Nino is a phenomenon of increased sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Specifically, warming in the eastern part (near the American continent) and cooling in the western part (near Papua). Consequently, cloud formation and rain concentrate in the eastern equatorial region as the center of low pressure. "The strong impact of El Nino has the potential to make the dry season in Indonesia longer and drier," said Erma to Tempo on Thursday, March 19, 2026.
Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon occurs in the Indian Ocean. A positive IOD indicates a cooling of sea surface temperatures near Sumatra and Java. This condition results in significantly reduced rainfall in the Indonesian region due to the presence of a high-pressure center.
El Nino and IOD+ are predicted to occur simultaneously during the dry season in Indonesia from April to October. "April is the beginning or initiation of El Nino," said Erma.
According to Erma, a repetition of the 2023 phenomenon will occur when Super El Nino intersects with IOD+. At that time, El Nino lasted from May 2023 to May 2024, while IOD+ occurred from July 2023 to February 2024.
Based on the prediction model developed by BRIN, the impact of El Nino and IOD+ this year will be a dry period in most of Java to East Nusa Tenggara from April to July 2026. Conversely, during the same period, there is potential for high rainfall in the northern part of Sulawesi and North Maluku. This uneven impact is similar to what happened in 2023 when the southern part of Indonesia experienced a drought while the northern part experienced extreme rainfall and flooding.
According to Erma, the government must be aware of the potential impact of a drought that could endanger the national food reserve in the northern coastal (Pantura) of Java during the upcoming dry season. It will be especially felt from June to August. El Nino and IOD+ will cause hot and dry weather. "There are hardly any low clouds over Java," added Erma.
In addition, the impact of forest and land fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan needs to be mitigated. At the same time, the government needs to prepare strategies to address the potential for floods and landslides caused by high rainfall in the northern part of Sulawesi and Maluku.
Read: BMKG: Indonesia to See Earlier, Longer Dry Season in 2026
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