Celios Forecasts 5.05% Growth Fueled by Ramadan-Eid Spending

March 25, 2026 | 01:53 pm

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Bhima Yudhistira, executive director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios), has projected Indonesia’s economy to grow 5.05 percent in the first quarter of 2026, supported by seasonal spending during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr 1447 Hijri.

“Economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 is estimated at 5.05 percent, driven by the seasonal Ramadan-Eid factor,” Bhima told Antara in Jakarta on Wednesday, March 25, 2026.

Bhima said economic growth in the first three months of 2026 could in fact exceed that forecast. However, he noted several challenges that may keep household consumption relatively restrained.

The first challenge, he said, is the tendency of consumers to hold back their Eid holiday allowance, or tunjangan hari raya (THR), rather than spend it immediately. Instead, many are expected to save the extra income.

According to Bhima, this cautious spending behavior is likely driven by concerns over a possible rise in energy and food prices after Eid. As a result, delayed consumer spending could weigh on the pace of economic growth.

In response, Bhima urged the government to keep inflation under control during the annual Eid homecoming period, known as mudik, so that people feel more confident using their THR for consumption.

Another factor that could limit growth, he said, is the possibility of weaker-than-expected post-Eid return migration to major cities, as job opportunities in urban areas remain limited.

Bhima explained that many job seekers typically use the Eid holiday as an opportunity to move to cities in search of work. He therefore encouraged the government to intensify job creation efforts so that the number of returnees after mudik can increase in both quantity and quality.

Beyond those challenges, Bhima said the government could further maximize economic growth during Ramadan and Eid by strengthening support for the tourism sector.

“Seasonally, mudik boosts tourism, but going forward, promotion of new tourist destinations needs to be intensified so that people stay longer,” he said.

The government is targeting national economic growth of between 5.5 percent and 5.6 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026.

That target is expected to be supported by faster state spending, fiscal stimulus, and stronger consumer purchasing power, particularly during Ramadan and Eid.

To help maintain household purchasing power and spur growth, the government has introduced an economic stimulus package in the first quarter of 2026.

One of the measures is transportation incentives for the Eid exodus, including a 30 percent discount on train tickets, 30 percent off sea transport fares, free ferry crossings, and airfare discounts of 17 to 18 percent.

Read: Over 1.7 Million Vehicles Enter Greater Jakarta Ahead Eid Travel Peak

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