Fact Check: Can Indonesia Withstand a Long Drought With Current Rice Stocks?

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - A TikTok video [archive] and Instagram post claim that the arrival of El Niño, which will cause a long drought, will not affect national rice stocks. Rice stocks are also considered safe for the next eleven months.

The video shows footage of President Prabowo's activities, the harvest season, piles of rice sacks in warehouses, and a photo of Deputy Minister of Agriculture Sudaryono.

The account holder wrote that rice reserves stored in Bulog warehouses as of April 7, 2026, were 4.6 million tons. The total accumulated rice stock reached 28 million tons.

Deputy Minister of Agriculture, Sudaryono, stated that this figure includes stocks at Bulog, commodities ready for harvest, and rice circulating among the public.

Is it true that Indonesia doesn't need to worry about a long drought because it has rice stocks for the next 11 months?

FACT CHECK

Tempo's Fact Check team verified the above claim by interviewing agricultural observers and using reliable media reports. The results indicate that not all rice stocks are available in government warehouses and ready for distribution.

Furthermore, prolonged droughts can pose a risk of crop failure, which could threaten future rice supplies.

Previously, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicted the peak of the dry season would occur in July–September 2026. The El Niño phenomenon—a deviation from normal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean—is expected to persist until early 2027.

The TikTok video amplifies a statement by Minister of Agriculture Andi Amran Sulaiman on March 6, 2026. At the time, Amran stated that the national food supply was secure amidst global geopolitical dynamics and the potential for climate phenomena such as El Niño and drought.

According to data as of March 2026, the total national rice availability reached 27.99 million tons. This figure is the accumulation of Bulog's stock of 3.76 million tons, community stocks of approximately 12.50 million tons, and standing crops, or ready-to-harvest rice, of 11.73 million tons.

"Our total national rice stock is sufficient for the next 324 days, or approximately 10.8 months," said Amran in Jakarta on Friday, March 6, 2026.

Rice Stock Data Questionable

Agricultural observer and former member of the Food Security Council Working Group, Khudori, considers the government's rice stock calculation method questionable. The claim that public stocks are 12.50 million tons, for example, is difficult to verify, and availability is also unclear.

Similarly, the method for calculating ready-to-harvest rice stocks is also unusual. "Anything can happen from planting to harvest," Khudori told Tempo on Thursday, June 11, 2026.

Adhitya Wardhono, a lecturer at the Faculty of Economics and Business at the University of Jember, stated that not all national rice stocks are available in government warehouses and ready for distribution. Some stocks are claimed to still be with the public, while others are ready-to-harvest crops.

"So the challenge lies in distribution, how to maintain quality, and the government's ability to maintain price stability during the long dry season," said Aditya.

Stock Does Not Guarantee Stable Retail Market Prices

Eko Sumartono, a lecturer in the Agribusiness Study Program at the Faculty of Agriculture, Dehasen University, Bengkulu, believes that although the government claims that stocks are secure, external risks could arise. These include disruptions to the distribution chain, hoarding, and shifts in market speculation.

These external risks, Eko said, mean that warehouse stocks do not automatically guarantee stable prices in retail markets. "Rice prices at the consumer level could soar beyond the highest retail price," Eko Sumartono told Tempo on Thursday, June 10, 2026.

According to Eko, to ensure that eleven-month stocks are truly maintained without a decrease in production due to the long dry season, the government needs to implement tactical measures such as pumping to channel river water to dry rice fields.

If there is no water supply mitigation, he said, the long dry season will trigger crop failure (puso) in rain-fed rice fields. Crop failure could disrupt rice stocks after the long dry season ends.

In addition, the government must increase the cropping index (IP) by encouraging land optimization so that farmers can plant at least twice a year (IP200) before the extreme drought peaks in August.

Adhitya Wardhono, a lecturer at the Faculty of Economics and Business at the University of Jember, stated that rice stocks must also be fully utilized to stabilize prices. "Especially if the drought starts to disrupt production and distribution," Adhitya Wardhono added.

Tempo contacted the Head of the Public Relations and Information Bureau, M. Arief Cahyono. However, as of Friday afternoon, June 12, 2026, he had not responded.

CONCLUSION

Tempo's verification concluded that Indonesia's claim that it has rice stocks for the next eleven months despite the prolonged drought is misleading.

According to the government's claimed data, not all rice stocks are available in warehouses and ready for distribution. Furthermore, a prolonged drought can pose a risk of crop failure, which could threaten future rice supplies.

TEMPO FACT CHECK TEAM

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