Fact Check: Singapore Is Not Behind Rupiah's Weakening

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Several posts on Facebook, X, and TikTok [archive] are spreading a narrative blaming Singapore for the weakening Indonesian rupiah. This content was circulated amid the rupiah's decline against the U.S. dollar, reaching Rp18,049 on Thursday, June 4, 2026.

The post included data from the Financial Transaction Reports and Reports Center (PPATK) regarding capital outflows from Indonesia to Singapore, which reached Rp3,595 trillion. Singapore was subsequently accused of draining USD from Indonesia.

Is it true that Singapore is the mastermind behind the weakening rupiah?

FACT CHECK

Tempo verified the content by interviewing experts and reviewing articles from credible sources. The results showed that the flow of money to and from Singapore is not a factor in the weakening rupiah.

Singapore-Indonesia money flow

The figure of Rp3,595 trillion was obtained from a PPATK report in the first half of 2024. As quoted by Bisnis.com, PPATK recorded that more outgoing Indonesian money was transferred abroad to Singapore than to the United States and China. Trillions of Indonesian rupiah also flowed to Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, Japan, and South Korea.

PPATK declined to comment on the trillions of rupiah flowing into Singapore, including whether the funds were legitimate or derived from money laundering.

A PPATK report from that same year revealed that Singapore had the largest amount of incoming fund transfers in May 2024, totaling Rp228.285 trillion. However, this figure was smaller than the Rp1,792.502 trillion that flowed out of Indonesia to Singapore.

However, the flow of money to Singapore cannot be interpreted as the cause of the weakening rupiah.

Investors decided on capital outflows, not a specific country

Singapore's link to the weakening rupiah is a factor of investor expectations. Anthony Budiawan, an economic and investment observer from Political Economy and Policy Studies (PEPS), explained that many Singaporean investors have purchased Indonesian debt securities or bonds. A massive withdrawal of investor funds, commonly known as capital outflow, could very well weaken the rupiah.

However, investor withdrawals are due to objective, rational factors. For example, the conflict in the Middle East has not only affected the Indonesian economy but also caused global turmoil.

"These investors are not affiliated with any country or government. This is purely an investment decision," Anthony said when contacted by Tempo on Wednesday, June 10, 2026.

According to Anthony, capital outflows are occurring not only in Indonesia but also in other emerging markets and developing economies. The impact on Indonesia is greater because its economic fundamentals are worse.

Fundamental factors are influenced by supply and demand. Bank Indonesia recorded a capital and financial transaction deficit of US$4.9 billion in the first quarter of 2026.

In fact, in the previous quarter, the transaction had a surplus of US$9 billion. Bank Indonesia attributed this deficit to global financial market uncertainty, maturing foreign loan payments, and the placement of cash and assets abroad.

"Indonesia's current account is in deficit. Meanwhile, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia have surpluses. Don't even ask about Singapore," Anthony said.

Why rupiah weakened?

In the June 4, 2026, edition of Tempo's Fact Check article, Gadjah Mada University economist Denni Puspa Purbasari explained that the weakening of the rupiah against the USD was due to fundamental factors and expectations.

Fundamental factors relate to the interaction between supply and demand. The geopolitical conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel, which triggered a surge in oil prices and a large current account deficit, also contributed to the weakening rupiah.

The expectation factor relates to market sentiment and projections, which are influenced by the investment climate and state policies.

CONCLUSION

Tempo’s investigation concluded that the claim that Singapore is the mastermind behind the weakening rupiah is misleading.

TEMPO FACT CHECK TEAM

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