March 20, 2026 | 05:07 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Military operations by the United States and Israel against Iran could push up global inflation if the conflict drags on, International Monetary Fund (IMF) spokesperson Julie Kozack said on Thursday.
“If prolonged, higher energy prices will lead to higher headline inflation,” Kozack said during a press briefing.
According to IMF estimates, a sustained 10 percent rise in oil prices could lift global inflation by 40 basis points and reduce global output by 0.1 to 0.2 percent, she added.
Kozack said the IMF is closely monitoring the economic fallout from the escalating conflict, which has disrupted global energy supplies and raised concerns over broader inflationary pressures. Brent crude has climbed above US$100 per barrel amid the turmoil, according to Reuters.
On February 28, the United States and Israel launched strikes on multiple targets in Iran, including in Tehran, causing damage and civilian casualties, according to the report.
Iran later retaliated by attacking Israeli territory and U.S. military facilities in the Middle East.
The escalation around Iran has effectively disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil and liquefied natural gas exports from the Persian Gulf to global markets, affecting both exports and production in the region.
As part of efforts to ease pressure on oil prices, the United States granted a sanctions waiver for India to receive Russian crude and petroleum products already loaded on vessels by March 5, with the authorization valid until April 4, 2026. The U.S. Treasury described the measure as a short-term step to keep oil flowing into global markets.
Read: Iran Claims Strike on US F-35 Fighter Jet
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