El Nino Forecast as Ocean Temperatures Approach Record Highs

April 10, 2026 | 10:42 pm

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Ocean temperatures for March hit near-record highs, the European Union's global warming monitor, the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said on Friday.

The warmest March for oceans on record was in 2024, during which the El Nino climate cycle drove temperatures up. Current records reflect once again "a likely transition toward El Nino conditions," said Copernicus.

Last month, The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) had similarly forecast a cycle shift this year. A cooling La Nina cycle will give way to neutral conditions before swinging into El Nino later this year, the organization predicts. 

US registers hottest March in over 130 years

In the U.S., last month was the most abnormally hot month in 132 years of records, according to federal weather data.  

"One reason that’s so concerning is just the sheer volume of records. This is coming on the heels of what was the worst snow year. And the hottest winter of record," the Associated Press quoted Shel Winkley, meteorologist with the non-profit Climate Central, as saying.

On March 20 and 21, about one-third of the U.S. felt unseasonable heat that would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change, Climate Central calculated.

Following the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to cap warming of near-surface temperature at 2 degrees Celcius. A more ambitious target was set at 1.5 degrees Celsius to avoid the worst impacts of global warming. In recent years, the global surface air temperature has increased by between 1.3 degrees and 1.4 degrees Celcius since the pre-industrial era, according to the EU monitor Copernicus.

Understanding La Nina and El Nino

La Nina and El Nino are opposing climate cycles in the tropical Pacific Ocean that cause short-term temperature swings globally. El Nino conditions tend to amplify heat extremes on an already warming planet. The most recent El Nino in 2023-2024 contributed to making those years the second-hottest and hottest on record, respectively.  

In the Arctic, the sea ice extent was 5.7 percent below average for March, the lowest on record for the month, said the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service on Friday.

The area of ocean covered by ice is decreasing steadily year after year, a key indicator of rapid warming in the Arctic and Antarctica.

Heating up the oceans has consquences

Oceans are the heat reservoirs of the planet. They absorb most of the excess heat caused by human activities and therefore play a key role in regulating the global climate.

Warmer oceans can have damaging knock-on effects on the planet. They are larger in size due to thermal expansion. In addition, they accelerate the melting of the Arctic, both of which contribute to rising sea levels. Furthermore, hotter seas fuel stronger storms and rainfall, both of which are becoming more frequent in recent years.

Read: Why Is It Still Raining in Indonesia Amid a 'Godzilla' El Nino Threat?

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