Indonesia's Economy Grows 5.12% in Q2, but Expert Flags Data Anomalies

August 5, 2025 | 03:23 pm

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Indonesia's Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced that Indonesia's economy grew by 5.12 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2025, but Nailul Huda, Director of the Digital Economy Center at the Institute for Economic and Legal Studies (Celios), argued that the data contained several anomalies that raised questions.

According to Nailul, one irregularity is the higher growth in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, even though the first quarter included the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr periods.

“In previous years, the highest quarterly growth typically occurred during Eid al-Fitr,” he said in a written statement on Tuesday, August 5, 2025.

“In the first quarter of 2025, growth was only 4.87 percent, so it seems anomalous that the second quarter reached 5.12 percent,” he added.

The second anomaly, according to Nailul, lies in the manufacturing sector data. BPS reported that the processing industry grew by 5.68 percent year on year and contributed 1.13 percent to overall economic growth.

However, during the April to June 2025 period, Indonesia's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell below 50 points, indicating contraction.

“This means companies are not significantly expanding,” Nailul said.

He added that conditions in the manufacturing industry appear to be worsening, pointing to a 32 percent year-on-year increase in layoffs between January and June 2025.

The third anomaly he noted is in household consumption, which grew by only 4.96 percent. According to BPS, household consumption makes up 54.25 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and contributed 2.64 percent to overall growth.

However, Nailul questioned what specific event caused a spike in household spending during that quarter.

“The lack of synchronization between economic growth data and leading indicators makes me personally question the reliability of the figures released by BPS,” he said.

He called on BPS to provide a detailed explanation of the methodology used, including the indices applied to calculate value added across sectors and expenditures.

Earlier, BPS Deputy for Balance and Statistical Analysis, Moh. Edy Mahmud, explained that Indonesia’s economy in the second quarter of 2025, based on current prices, reached Rp5,947 trillion. In constant 2010 prices, it stood at Rp3,396.3 trillion.

“So, when compared to the second quarter of 2024, Indonesia’s economy grew by 5.12 percent year on year,” Edy said at a press conference on Tuesday, August 5, 2025.

In terms of expenditure, Edy said all components showed positive growth except for government consumption, which contracted by 0.33 percent.

“The largest contributor to GDP is household consumption, which accounts for 54.25 percent. This component grew by 4.97 percent, reflecting the strength of domestic demand,” he said.

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