Rupiah Opens Stronger as Market Expects More Fed Rate Cuts in 2025

October 9, 2025 | 12:54 pm

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Rupiah opens stronger 17 points to Rp16,556 per US dollar on Thursday, October 9, 2025, from the previous Rp16,573 per US dollar.

Analyst at Bank Woori Saudara, Rully Nova, attributed the strengthening to market optimisim over The Fed's planned interest rate cuts for the rest of 2025. 

"The rupiah in today's trading is predicted to strengthen in the range of Rp16,500-Rp16,575 influenced by the release of The Fed's September meeting minutes, which provide optimism for two times interest rate cuts until the end of this year," he told Antara in Jakarta, Thursday.

Quoting Anadolu, The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in October and December 2025.

This potential cut is driven by weak US inflation figures, increased US unemployment data, and pressure from US President Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, despite concerns about the government shutdown, gold prices continue to surge, driven by geopolitical risks, concerns about the global economy, central bank gold demand, and The Fed's interest rate cut cycle.

Following US President Donald Trump's pressure, The Fed cut its reference interest rate by 25 basis points last week.

Chief Economist at Permata Bank, Josua Pardede, the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes shows that some FOMC members support further interest rate cuts, but they remain cautious about the risk of inflation.

Some members also predict that a significant decline in US employment is unlikely to occur. This affirms the cautious attitude of FOMC members towards the pace of easing.

The members affirm that they will balance the risks of inflation and employment in assessing the next policy decisions.

"Meanwhile, domestically, the release of consumer confidence survey data by BI still shows high optimism about the future economic conditions of Indonesia," said Rully Nova.

Bank Indonesia (BI) reported that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is at an optimistic level, or an index of more than 100, namely 115.0. Consumer confidence persists as it is supported by the Current Economic Conditions Index (CECI) and the Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) which remain at optimistic levels.

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