Rupiah Predicted to Weaken as US Economic Data Release is Delayed

October 7, 2025 | 11:17 am

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The rupiah exchange rate at the opening of trading on Tuesday in Jakarta moved flat, remaining at Rp16,583 per US dollar, down from Rp16,583 per US dollar previously.

Woori Bank analyst Rully Nova estimates that the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar will weaken as the release of US economic data is delayed.

"The delay in the release of US economic data due to the government shutdown makes it very difficult for the Fed to determine a rate cut and increases market players' interest in holding US dollars," he told Antara in Jakarta, Tuesday, October 7, 2025.

Citing Sputnik, the US government shutdown has the potential to cause massive layoffs and a loss of US$15 billion (Rp248 trillion) per week to the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) if it continues.

White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, in an interview with CNN, as reported by RIA Novosti, assessed that if the president decides that negotiations have truly reached an impasse, layoffs will begin. However, if the Democratic Party adopts a prudent approach to the Senate budget approval process, there will be no reason for layoffs, Hassett added.

The uncertainty surrounding the shutdown, as proposals to reopen the US government failed to pass for the fourth time, has delayed the release of US economic data.

The 2024 fiscal year ends on September 30, but Congress has yet to reach an agreement on the budget for the following year.

This deadlock is caused by a fierce conflict between Republicans and Democrats in the Senate, with Republicans lacking the necessary majority.

"Meanwhile, domestic sentiment remains, so wait and see the release of BI (Bank Indonesia) foreign exchange reserves data," said Rully.

Similarly, Permata Bank Chief Economist Josua Pardede predicted the rupiah would weaken following the release of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves data for September 2025 today. Foreign exchange reserves are expected to decline due to outflows in September 2025.

"The rupiah is expected to move in the range of Rp16,525 to Rp16,625 per US dollar," he said.

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