BMKG: No Signs of 'El Nino Godzilla' in 2026

April 14, 2026 | 05:31 pm

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) confirmed that there is no indication that a "super El Nino" phenomenon, also known as El Nino Godzilla, will occur in 2026.

Teguh Wardoyo, head of the Data Services and Information Dissemination Working Team at the Tunggul Wulung Cilacap Meteorological Station, Central Java, said on Tuesday that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) would remain in a neutral phase until the first half of 2026.

"Entering the second semester, ENSO has the potential to move towards a weak or even moderate El Nino with a probability of around 55 percent, especially from June to August," he said, as quoted by Antara.

He said that ENSO is a global climate phenomenon caused by the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Changes in sea surface temperature and air pressure are its defining characteristics.

This phenomenon has three main phases: El Nino, La Nina, and Neutral. El Nino is characterized by positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific (Nino 3.4), whereas La Nina is characterized by negative anomalies.

According to him, El Nino's impact in Indonesia is generally decreased rainfall, though it is greatly influenced by water temperatures in the region.

"If Indonesian waters are cold enough, El Nino can significantly reduce rainfall. However, if waters are relatively warm, the impact may be less pronounced," he said.

He said that La Nina tends to increase rainfall in Indonesia, especially when accompanied by warmer sea surface temperatures in Indonesian waters.

He said that the strength of El Nino is measured based on sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region. An El Nino is categorized as weak if the anomaly is between 0.5 and 0.9 degrees Celsius, moderate if between 1.0 and 1.4 degrees Celsius, strong if between 1.5 and 1.9 degrees Celsius, and very strong if it reaches or exceeds 2.0 degrees Celsius.

He emphasized that El Nino Godzilla is not an official term from BMKG. Instead, it is a common term used to describe extreme El Nino events, like the ones that happened in 1997 and 2015.

"The BMKG has never used the term El Nino Godzilla. It's simply a public term to describe a very strong El Nino with temperature anomalies exceeding 2 degrees Celsius," he said.

Furthermore, he confirmed that there will be no indication of a Super El Nino in 2026, only the potential for a weak El Nino beginning in the second half of the year.

However, the public should remain aware of the potential for decreased rainfall in areas prone to drought. They should also continue to monitor official information from the BMKG.

"We will continue to update information on ENSO developments regularly so that the public can take early precautionary measures," said Teguh.

Read: BMKG: 2026 Dry Season Expected to Be Drier Than 30-Year Norm

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