BRIN Alerts Drought Risk as El Nino Enters Moderate Phase

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, or El Niño, has escalated into a moderate phase. As of Sunday, June 21, the temperature anomaly has already reached a spike of 1.1 degrees Celsius.

"El Niño, as predicted, has changed from a weak phase to a moderate one," Erma Yulihastin, a researcher at the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center of the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), confirmed on Thursday, June 25, 2026.

Erma referred to the three-month average sea surface temperature anomaly modeling in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Niño 3.4) compiled by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Based on that same model, the progressive surge of El Niño is projected to intensify further, potentially reaching a peak of 2 degrees Celsius next month.

Erma highlighted the rapid development of this climate pattern, noting that the temperature anomaly had climbed from 0.8 to 0.9 degrees Celsius as of June 14. At that time, the professor of climatology and extreme weather research revealed another critical fact: that the 2026 El Niño exhibits a pattern of sub-surface extreme heat propagation similar to 1997 and a spatial structure resembling 2015.

These indicators suggest that this year's El Niño, which multiple climate models predict could escalate into a super phase, may prove more severe than the historical events of 2015 and 1997. "El Niño 2026 = 1997 + 2015," she warned in a post shared across her social media accounts.

The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), in its updated atmospheric dynamics analysis released on June 23, stated that the sea surface temperature anomaly value in the Niño 3.4 region stands at +1.61 degrees Celsius on a decadal basis. On a monthly track, the anomaly is recorded at +1.00 degrees Celsius.

Early warnings for meteorological drought during the third ten-day period of this month (June 20–30) have been issued by the BMKG for several regions under two distinct categories: Alert and Warning. The areas placed on Alert include several regencies and cities across the provinces of Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, and Maluku.

Meanwhile, according to the BMKG, regions that must brace for a higher Warning status for drought include several regencies and cities within the provinces of Central Java, East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, and South Papua.

Read: How Will Indonesia Mitigate El Nino's Impact on Agriculture?

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