UEFA Champions League 2026-27: Arsenal, Bayern Lead Favorites as Tournament Returns

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – The UEFA Champions League is back, with Europe's biggest clubs beginning their pursuit of the famous trophy ahead of the final in Madrid on June 5 next year.

Paris Saint-Germain are aiming to become champions for the third consecutive season as the league phase begins, but five English clubs are among the teams hoping to prevent another PSG triumph. Arsenal, last season's runners-up, have emerged as the leading favorites according to Opta's projections.

According to BBC Sport, football experts Julien Laurens and Guillem Balague have also assessed the leading contenders, while highlighting players who could make an impact during the tournament. The statistics offer another perspective on which clubs are best placed to reach the final stages.

The BBC will again provide Champions League highlights throughout the season, with match highlights available on BBC iPlayer and the BBC Sport website and app during Champions League weeks, along with a special Champions League Match of the Day programme on BBC One.

Who Are the Favorites to Win the Champions League?

Laurens does not expect PSG to complete a three-peat, despite acknowledging the difficulty of maintaining their dominance.

"If PSG do the three-peat, it would be an incredible achievement," Laurens said. "I don't think they will do it."

He believes PSG can reach at least the semifinals but considers three consecutive titles particularly difficult.

Laurens instead expects Arsenal and Bayern Munich to reach the final, with Arsenal his choice to lift the trophy. He pointed to Arsenal's defense as a major reason for his prediction, while placing Bayern as runners-up and PSG among the semifinalists.

Balague also expects PSG to remain a major force despite their uneven start to the season. He said Luis Enrique's demanding style could lead to a period of experimentation and inconsistent results during the league phase before the competition reaches its decisive stage in January.

"With the main axis there, I expect them to get very close to winning it again," Balague said.

He also highlighted Barcelona, saying the Catalan club are performing at a high level and could challenge for the title. Arsenal, meanwhile, have developed a winning habit that could give the team greater confidence.

Balague expects PSG, Barcelona and Arsenal to reach the semifinals, with Bayern Munich, Real Madrid or Manchester City potentially joining them depending on the draw.

Who Are the Players to Watch?

Laurens selected five players he believes could have a major impact on this season's Champions League.

Jude Bellingham is one of his picks, with the Real Madrid midfielder entering an important season under Jose Mourinho. Laurens believes Bellingham is well suited to the No. 10 role and expects him to score more goals and become a decisive player for the Spanish club.

Como's Nico Paz is another player to watch. The Argentine midfielder is central to Como's attacking play as the club prepares for its first Champions League campaign under manager Cesc Fabregas. Laurens described Paz as a special young player who could soon establish himself among Europe's top talents.

PSG winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is another standout for Laurens. The Georgia international has impressed since joining PSG and can threaten opponents by cutting inside or attacking from the outside. Laurens believes Kvaratskhelia is also in contention for the Ballon d'Or.

Lens defender Ismaelo Ganiou is another name on his list. The 21-year-old center-back is strong, quick and comfortable with the ball, and Laurens expects him to attract interest from a major Premier League club.

The final player selected by Laurens is Donyell Malen, who has impressed since leaving Aston Villa for Roma. Playing as a lone striker under Gian Piero Gasperini, Malen has scored at an impressive rate, and Laurens expects him to return to his best level as Roma compete in the Champions League.

Balague's list includes Bayern Munich forward Harry Kane, who he believes deserves to be considered for the Ballon d'Or. He expects Kane to maintain his high level because Bayern's style suits his game.

Barcelona teenager Lamine Yamal is also among Balague's players to watch. Yamal is eager to make his mark in the Champions League, while Hansi Flick's high defensive line and aggressive approach could give the youngster opportunities to shine.

Balague also singled out Kvaratskhelia, predicting that the PSG winger will continue to make the difference in major games and could eventually win the Ballon d'Or.

Shakhtar Donetsk's 20-year-old forward Kaua Elias is another player Balague expects to attract attention, with the Ukrainian club having a long history of developing Brazilian players into major European transfers.

Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard completes Balague's list. After an injury-hit season last year, the Norwegian midfielder has started the new campaign strongly and will be expected to provide leadership as Arsenal look to challenge for the title.

What Do the Opta Statistics Say?

According to Opta, Arsenal are the overall favorites to win the 2026-27 Champions League, with a 20.4 percent chance of lifting the trophy. Bayern Munich are narrowly behind at 20 percent, while Manchester City are third with a 12.7 percent probability.

PSG's chances of winning a third consecutive European title stand at 7.3 percent, placing them fourth overall. Barcelona are fifth at 7.2 percent.

All five Premier League clubs are ranked among Opta's top 10 teams by overall winning probability, and all have been given more than a 50 percent chance of reaching the last 16.

Liverpool have the easiest league-phase draw among the Premier League clubs according to Opta's power rankings. Stuttgart have the easiest overall schedule, while Inter Milan have the most favorable draw among the teams in pot one.

Arsenal also have a relatively favorable draw despite being paired with Real Madrid and Bayern Munich from pot one. They were also drawn against the two lowest-ranked teams in the competition, Sabah and Slovan Bratislava.

Manchester City face the toughest schedule among the English clubs. They have been drawn against Barcelona and PSG from pot one, while Napoli, ranked 24th, represents a particularly difficult opponent from pot three.

Last season, Arsenal finished top of the league phase after receiving one of the easier fixture lists according to Opta. Bayern Munich finished second despite having the toughest set of opponents among all 36 teams.

Percentage of Winning the 2026-27 Champions League, Opta Top 10 Predictions

- Arsenal 20.4 percent

- Bayern Munich 20 percent

- Man City 12.7 percent

- Paris St-Germain 7.3 percent

- Barcelona 7.2 percent

- Liverpool 5.1 percent

- Real Madrid 5.1 percent

- Inter Milan 3.8 percent

- Man Utd 3.6 percent

- Aston Villa 2.2 percent

How Will the Four Debutant Teams Get On?

Four clubs are making their Champions League debuts this season, with Balague offering predictions for how they could fare in their first campaigns.

Como are among the most intriguing newcomers, particularly because of Fabregas' decision to remain at the club despite receiving offers elsewhere. Balague believes the manager's freedom to develop his ideas could help Como compete at the highest level.

He expects Como to reach the knockout stages.

Austrian club LASK showed their competitiveness by progressing past Celtic, but Balague believes reaching the knockout stages will probably be beyond them. A home victory and a respectable points tally would represent a successful debut campaign.

Azerbaijan's Sabah are another interesting newcomer, having built their success around organization. However, their schedule includes away games against Arsenal and Manchester United as well as home matches against Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund.

Balague expects Sabah to produce one or two surprises but does not believe they will advance to the knockout stages.

Norwegian club Viking face a difficult schedule that includes Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, Napoli and Aston Villa. However, Balague believes the competitiveness and tactical intelligence associated with Norwegian football could help them challenge the bigger clubs.

He believes Viking could potentially reach the knockout stages.

Read: Road to Glory: When Is the Champions League Final 2026?

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