Iran Vows to Continue Oil Blockade Until US-Israel Attacks End

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, that they would not allow oil shipments from the Middle East if attacks by the US and Israel continue. This prompted President Donald Trump to declare that the US would strike Iran much harder if the country blocked exports.

The IRGC emphasized that they would determine the end of the war, stating, "We are the ones who will determine the end of the war," according to government media, as cited from CNA.

However, this rhetoric did little to stamp out the decline in crude oil prices and global stock increases that occurred after Trump's statement that the war with Iran would end quickly, despite Iran's defiance in appointing Mojtaba Khamenei as their new supreme leader.

Trump and Netanyahu's Claims

Trump claimed on Monday that the US had inflicted serious damage on the Iranian military and predicted that the conflict would end much sooner than the four-week timeline he had set, although he did not define what victory would look like. Israel stated that its goal in the war was to overthrow Iran's clerical government.

"Our aspiration is to bring the Iranian people to cast off the yoke of tyranny," said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a statement released by his office on Tuesday.

US officials mostly stated that Washington's goal was to destroy Iran's missile capabilities and nuclear program, but Trump insisted that the war could only end with Iran's compliant government.

At least 1,332 Iranian civilians have been killed and thousands more injured, according to Iran's ambassador to the UN, since the US and Israel launched airstrikes and missiles across Iran on February 28.

Blocking the Strait of Hormuz

Trump warned that US attacks could escalate sharply if Iran attempted to block tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles one-fifth of the world's oil supply.

"If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far," he said in a post on Trust Social.

Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil exporter, warned on Tuesday of 'catastrophic consequences' for the global oil market if the war continues to disrupt shipments in the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait is the world's most important oil export route, connecting the largest Gulf oil producers to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

The war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing tankers to be unable to sail for more than a week and forcing producers to halt pumping as storage facilities fill up.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that Tehran might not continue negotiations with the US, which he claimed had been talking about progress after three rounds of talks.

"Still they decided to attack us. So I don't think talking with Americans anymore would be on our agenda anymore," he said in an interview with PBS.

The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei on Monday to replace his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, seemed to dash hopes for a quick end to the war, causing oil prices to surge and stock markets to plunge.

Easing Russian Sanctions

The market shifted course when Trump predicted a quick end to the war, and after reports of a potential easing of energy-related sanctions on Russia.

After speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump stated that the US would lift oil-related sanctions on 'some countries' to alleviate supply shortages.

According to sources, this could mean further relaxation of sanctions on Russian oil, which could hinder efforts to punish Moscow for its war in Ukraine. Other options include the possibility of releasing oil from strategic reserves or restricting US exports, the source said.

Brent crude oil prices fell more than 10 percent on Tuesday after surging 29 percent on Monday to the highest level since 2022. Global stock markets also rebounded.

Gasoline prices have particular political resonance in the US, where voters cite rising costs as a top concern ahead of the midterm elections in November, when Trump's Republican Party will seek to retain control of Congress.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday found that 67 percent of Americans expect gasoline prices to rise in the coming months, and only 29 percent approve of the war.

Turkey Denial of Attacks

Tehran was shrouded in black smoke after an oil refinery was attacked, an increase in attacks on Iran's domestic energy supply. World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus warned that the fires posed a risk of contaminating food, water, and air.

Iran on Monday denied claims that they had targeted Azerbaijan, Cyprus, or Turkey, stating that the launches did not originate from their territory and that there was a  “there is a malicious regime in the region” with a long track of “sabotage operations.”

“Regarding the Republic of Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Cyprus that you mentioned, the General Staff of the Armed Forces has explicitly stated that no such projectiles were launched from within Iran or by our military forces. In the case of Cyprus, even British officials confirmed that no such incident occurred,” said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei as reported by The New Region.

Iran's retaliatory campaign following the US-Israeli attacks on the country since February 28 has targeted several countries in the region.

Turkey announced the interception of ballistic ammunition in its airspace, allegedly originating from Iran, by NATO air defense and missile assets on two separate occasions, including on Monday.

On March 2, a drone attack targeted the UK's Royal Air Force base Akrotiri in Cyprus. The President of Cyprus claimed that the attack was carried out by a 'Shahed-type' unmanned aircraft, without directly accusing Iran.

The autonomous exclave of Nakhchivan in Azerbaijan was the target of several drone attacks last Thursday, with one hitting the airport and another falling near a school. The attacks injured two civilians and damaged the airport.

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev referred to the attacks as “a terrorist act… committed by Iran,” demanding an official explanation and apology.

The British Defense Ministry stated on Wednesday that they had confirmed that the attack on RAF Akrotiri "was not launched from Iran."

Read: Iran IRGC Warns of Energy War After US-Israel Strikes 

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