JCI Seen Volatile as Investors Track US-Iran Ceasefire Efforts

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Indonesia’s benchmark stock index, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), is expected to remain volatile on Thursday as investors continue to monitor U.S.-led efforts to broker a ceasefire with Iran amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

At the opening bell, the JCI rose 11.54 points, or 0.16 percent, to 7,313.66, while the LQ45 index, which tracks 45 leading stocks, edged up 0.42 points, or 0.06 percent, to 746.87.

Liza Camelia Suryanata, Head of Research at Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia, advised investors to remain cautious.

“Kiwoom Research recommends averaging up selectively and maintaining strict money management discipline,” Liza said in a research note released in Jakarta on Thursday.

Global market sentiment remains fragile after the United States reportedly floated a 15-point peace proposal for Iran, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and dismantling Iran’s nuclear facilities.

U.S. President Donald Trump said negotiations were underway, but Tehran denied any talks were taking place and insisted it would not end the war until its conditions were met.

Iran, for its part, is demanding a full end to the war — not merely a ceasefire — along with recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions, compensation, and freedom to pursue its military program.

Communication is continuing through mediators including Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt, but the gap between the two sides remains wide.

“The market is caught between hope and reality. Every positive headline triggers risk-on sentiment, but it is quickly offset by Iran’s denials,” Liza said.

Meanwhile, global rate expectations have shifted sharply, with markets no longer fully pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts this year after previously expecting two reductions.

Rising oil prices have reinforced expectations that the Fed could maintain a more hawkish stance for longer, as higher energy costs threaten to reignite inflation pressures. Recent market commentary has also pointed to higher oil prices as a key factor supporting a stronger U.S. dollar and firmer hawkish bets from central banks.

Domestically, the Indonesian government, through the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry and state energy firm Pertamina, has stepped up its alert status by strengthening fuel stock safeguards and maintaining crude and fuel import flows amid global supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict and the risk of a Strait of Hormuz closure.

To reduce exposure, Indonesia is shifting some imports to suppliers outside the Hormuz route, including Malaysia, Brunei, Africa, and the United States, while avoiding supplies from sanctioned countries.

Domestic fuel reserves are estimated at around 27 days, above the minimum threshold but still underscoring Indonesia’s vulnerability to external shocks.

In Wednesday’s trading, major European stock markets closed higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.29 percent, the UK’s FTSE 100 gaining 1.42 percent, Germany’s DAX rising 1.41 percent, and France’s CAC 40 adding 1.33 percent.

On Wall Street, U.S. stocks also ended higher on Wednesday. The S&P 500 rose 0.54 percent to 6,591.90, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.67 percent to 24,162.98, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.66 percent to 46,429.49.

Across Asia on Thursday morning, Japan’s Nikkei fell 333.12 points, or 0.61 percent, to 53,440.00, while Shanghai rose 17.59 points, or 0.45 percent, to 3,914.71, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 353.45 points, or 1.37 percent, to 24,991.50, and Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 20.95 points, or 0.42 percent, to 4,925.49.

Read: Iran Says It Only Permits Friendly Nations Through Strait of Hormuz

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