TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Currency analyst at Doo Financial Futures, Lukman Leong, said that the rupiah exchange rate has the potential to strengthen following the dovish statement from Federal Reserve officials (The Fed). "Today, the rupiah has the potential to strengthen against the weakening U.S. dollar due to the 'dovish' statement from 'The Fed Waller' who wants an immediate interest rate cut, possibly this month," he told ANTARA in Jakarta on Friday, July 18, 2025.
According to Christopher Waller, U.S. tariff policies will not be entirely passed on to consumers, and labor data is expected to worsen in the future. Therefore, Waller emphasizes the potential for two interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points (bps), until the end of the year.
The U.S. dollar exchange rate briefly strengthened on Thursday night, July 17, following stronger-than-expected U.S. unemployment claims data, which were 221,000 compared to the estimated 235,000, and a 0.6 percent increase in retail sales compared to the expected 0.1 percent. "However, the 'dovish Waller' stance reversed the pressure on the U.S. dollar," said Lukman.
Based on these factors, the rupiah exchange rate is predicted to range from Rp16,250 to Rp16,400 per U.S. dollar.
The rupiah exchange rate at the opening of trading on Friday morning in Jakarta strengthened by 34 points or 0.20 percent to Rp16,307 per U.S. dollar from the previous Rp16,341 per U.S. dollar.
Editor's Choice: 19% US Tariff Reflects Indonesia's Weak Negotiating Power, Analyst Says
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