Rupiah Strengthens to Rp17,640: What Drove the Gain?

September 7, 2026 | 08:43 pm

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The rupiah closed slightly higher against the US dollar in Monday's trading on September 7, 2026. The Indonesian currency gained two points to close at Rp17,640 per greenback, up from the previous close of Rp17,642, after temporarily dipping by 25 points during the session.

Currency and commodities analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi predicted that the rupiah's movements on Tuesday, September 8, 2026, will remain volatile. However, the rupiah is projected to close lower in the range of Rp17,640 to Rp17,680 per US dollar.

According to Ibrahim, escalating tensions between the United States and Iran emerged as one of the external factors drawing market attention. The US military stated that it struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday after Iranian forces targeted a US Navy vessel with ballistic missiles.

Iran subsequently claimed to have hit an unmanned aircraft, or drone, belonging to the US Navy. Tehran also warned that any further US strikes would draw a harsher response.

Ibrahim noted that the escalating conflict heightened market anxiety regarding the safety of commercial shipping and energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition to geopolitical risks, Ibrahim stated that investors were also closely monitoring US economic developments.

He pointed out that the US economy is currently absorbing labor at a much faster pace than anticipated. "More than 162,000 Americans joined the workforce in August, far exceeding the projected 56,000, while the July figure was revised upward from minus 23,000 to 21,000," Ibrahim said in a written statement on Monday, September 7, 2026.

Meanwhile, the US unemployment rate stood at 4.1 percent, coming in below the Federal Reserve's year-end forecast of 4.5 percent. According to Ibrahim, the robust labor market will pivot the Federal Reserve's focus back toward inflationary trends.

Therefore, he added, investors will watch this week's release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data. If both metrics signal elevated inflation, potential shifts in the Fed's monetary policy ahead of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will once again become a market concern.

Domestically, Ibrahim views this week as a test of Indonesia's monetary policy flexibility. The government and Bank Indonesia must ensure that monetary stimulus measures do not exacerbate pressure on the rupiah or trigger foreign capital flight.

"The market is also continuing to evaluate the impact of recent natural disasters on national economic activity, including the eruption of Mount Anak Krakatau," he said.

In addition to flight disruptions, regional natural disasters pose additional risks to economic operations and supply chains. For instance, peatland blazes in Kalimantan and parts of Sumatra, coupled with receding water levels in the Barito River, threaten to disrupt coal transport.

"Market participants will monitor disaster response efforts and assess their economic impact if logistics disruptions and restrictions on public activity persist over a longer period," Ibrahim said.

Read: What Are the Impacts of the Anak Krakatau Eruption on Indonesia?

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