Spain vs. Belgium at 2026 World Cup: Which Team Is Favored to Win?

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Spanish national team will face Belgium in the quarterfinals of the 2026 World Cup at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California, United States, on Saturday, July 11, 2026, at 02:00 a.m. Jakarta time. According to the Opta Analyst's prediction, La Roja is more favored to advance to the semifinals.

From 25,000 simulations run before the match, Opta predicts Spain to win the game in regular time in 58.3 percent of the simulations. On the other hand, Belgium only has a 19.1 percent chance of winning, while the possibility of a draw reaches 22.6 percent.

Taking into account the possibility of the game going into extra time or a penalty shootout, Spain's chances of advancing to the semifinals increase to 69.8 percent. Spain's advantage is also supported by their meeting record.

Belgium has not won in the last 11 meetings across all competitions. Moreover, Spain has won the last five meetings with a striking aggregate of 13-1. "Belgium will hope they are hitting form at the perfect time ahead of Friday’s World Cup quarter-final against Spain in Los Angeles," wrote Opta Analyst.

Belgium is beginning to find its footing

The team led by Rudi Garcia has not been entirely convincing when they became the champions of Group G. However, they showed strong character by coming back to defeat Senegal 3-2 after extra time in the round of 32.

Belgium's performance significantly improved in the round of 16. They crushed one of the hosts, the United States, with a 4-1 score at Lumen Field Stadium, Seattle, on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. Amid the spotlight on the fitness of the United States' striker Folarin Balogun, Belgium appeared very effective. Charles De Ketelaere scored two goals, while Hans Vanaken and Romelu Lukaku each contributed one goal.

Although being the second Belgian player after Marc Wilmots in 2002 to score in three consecutive World Cup matches, Lukaku is expected to start the game from the bench again.

All three of Lukaku's goals in this World Cup were scored as a substitute. In World Cup history, only Roger Milla from Cameroon has scored more goals as a substitute in one edition, with four goals in 1990.

Lukaku's sharpness reflects the effectiveness of Belgium's front line. Their shooting conversion rate reached 12.1 percent, the second best in Belgium's World Cup appearance history since data became available in 1966. This figure is only surpassed by the 15.2 percent conversion rate when Belgium finished in third place in the 2018 World Cup in Russia.

Belgium also showed aggressiveness in creating chances. They averaged 21.4 shots per game or 107 shots in five matches. This number is only second to the average of 24 shots per game they recorded in the 1970 World Cup.

Spain's defense difficult to penetrate

Belgium's productivity will be tested by Spain's outstanding backline throughout the tournament.
La Roja recorded their sixth clean sheet in a row when they defeated Portugal 1-0 in the round of 16. Mikel Merino's solitary goal in injury time ensured Spain's qualification to the quarterfinals.

"Spain kept their sixth consecutive clean sheet in Monday’s 1-0 win over Portugal, marking a World Cup record. La Roja have not conceded at the World Cup in a remarkable 10 hours and nine minutes," wrote Opta Analyst.

Even more impressive, Spain only has an average expected goals against (xGA) of 0.30 per game, the lowest figure ever recorded by a team in a single edition of the World Cup. Merino determined the victory over Portugal and brought Spain to the World Cup quarterfinals for the sixth time.

Spain had previously lost in their first four appearances in the quarterfinals in the editions from 1934 to 2002. The curse was broken when they defeated Paraguay 1-0 in the 2010 World Cup before eventually becoming the world champions.

Yamal and Rodri as the mainstays

When Spain won the 2010 World Cup, Lamine Yamal was only 3 years old. Now, the Barcelona player is expected to become the driving force of La Roja's attack. Yamal has successfully completed 17 dribbles throughout the tournament. Among teenage players since data became available in 1966, only Jamal Musiala (19 dribbles in 2022) and Kylian Mbappe (22 dribbles in 2018) recorded higher numbers.

In midfield, Rodri is the main playmaker. He has made 80 line-breaking passes, the most by a Spanish player in the World Cup since 2010. At that time, Gerard Piqué made 86 passes, Xavi Hernández 89, and Xabi Alonso 126.

Coach Luis de la Fuente is optimistic about Yamal making a big impact again. "He's going to perform on the attacking front—that's very clear. He's got incredible potential. And, of course, this is yet to come in some respects," De la Fuente said, as quoted from France24.

Under De la Fuente's leadership, Spain has always progressed from six knockout matches in major tournaments. Throughout history, only Vittorio Pozzo with Italy and Vicente del Bosque with Spain have won more consecutive knockout matches since the beginning of their leadership.

Meeting Record

The two teams last met in a friendly match in Brussels in September 2016. At that time, two goals from David Silva brought Spain a 2-0 victory. Since losing 1-2 to Belgium in the 1980 European Championship, Spain has never suffered another defeat in 11 meetings against Belgium in all competitions. La Roja has recorded nine wins and two draws.

This match will be the third meeting between the two countries in the World Cup and the second in the quarterfinals. In the 1986 World Cup, Belgium eliminated Spain through a penalty shootout after a 1-1 draw. Spain, on the other hand, won 2-1 in the group stage of the 1990 World Cup.

Based on Opta's simulation, Spain is the strong favorite to advance to the semifinals. The winner of this match will face France, who earlier defeated Morocco 2-0 in the quarterfinals.

Read: Spain vs Belgium World Cup 2026: Kick-Off Time and Match Preview

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