How Indonesia's Coal Production This Year Compared to 2025

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Indonesia recorded a total of 423.71 million tons in coal production in the first half of 2026. According to Tri Winarno, Mineral and Coals DG at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, monthly coal production this year dropped by 8 million tons compared to the average production in 2025.

Coal production reached 817.48 million tons last year, with 63.89 percent allotted for export, 30.2 percent for domestic demand, and 5.9 percent set aside for stockpiles.

Meanwhile, by July 2026, approximately 63.82 percent of the total coal production this year has been allocated for export, 26.86 percent for domestic demand, and 9.32 percent for national stockpiles.

"Our approach is optimum production, where production must be balanced with the market, market demand, the DMO (Demand for Mining) program, price conditions, logistics, and reserve sustainability," he said on Thursday, September 10, 2026, as quoted by Antara.

According to him, global coal demand is expected to decline slightly over the next five years as renewable energy usage increases. But India and the ASEAN region could still see demand growth, including in 2027. China and India also remain major markets for Indonesian coal exports.

According to Tri, the coal price trend is relatively stable with a tendency to rise in line with demand from key markets. In terms of price formation, the Reference Coal Price (HBA) from January to August 2026 averaged around US$111.8 per ton. HBA I (5,300 GAR) was valued at US$79.3, HBA II (4,100 GAR) at US$54.2, and HBA III (3,400 GAR) at US$38.3 per ton.

The government, he went on, also established production policies through the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB), taking into account supply sustainability and market conditions.

The energy ministry set a national coal production target in the work plan document of around 600 million tons, lower than last year's 817.48 million tons.

Amidst these production adjustments, Tri added, logistical aspects are taken into account, as weather conditions can affect coal distribution.

Based on the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecast, the 2026 dry season is expected to run longer, with reduced rainfall expected to lower the flow of the Barito and Mahakam Rivers, the main routes for coal transportation to export ports.

Read: What Swinging Coal Prices Mean for Miners

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